Mr Tsvangirai faces a dilemma. If he boycotts a second round, he will lose by default. But if he agrees to compete, Mr Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party seem certain to use intimidation, violence and vote-rigging to force people to vote for the incumbent. For now the opposition leader remains abroad, unlikely to return without being offered guarantees of his safety.
It is unclear when the run-off will take place, although it may be within three weeks of the result being officially declared. Mr Tsvangirai and the MDC may eventually agree to take part if there is a much stronger presence of international monitors than before, preferably from the United Nations. So far, the Southern African Development Community, a group of 14 countries in the region, has provided oversight. But the MDC and most independent observers say it is biased in favour of Mr Mugabe. In particular, Thabo Mbeki, the president of South Africa, has been reluctant to oversee Mr Mugabe’s downfall.
Mr Mugabe’s position is not entirely secure. For the first time, Zimbabwe's crisis has been discussed in the UN's Security Council. Southern African leaders are becoming alarmed by multiplying reports of government-sponsored violence. The MDC says that at least 20 of its supporters have been killed in recent weeks, and hundreds beaten up. Some in the ruling circles are muttering that the impasse can be solved only with a government of national unity. Mr Mugabe, however, has given no hint that he will step down.
But his acknowledged loss of Parliament—his ZANU-PF party is without control for the first time since independence in 1980—is a big blow. Despite fears of rigging, a recount of votes in 23 of the 210 constituencies failed to change the overall result. The two factions of the MDC, which together won 109 seats against ZANU-PF's 97, have promised to join forces in Parliament. If Mr Mugabe were to manage to stay on, his government would struggle to pass any law in the legislature. (The MDC would not be able to rule the roost either as it lacks the two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution.) The president's wide powers could enable him to rule by decree. He can appoint a third of the senators, so his party would still outnumber the opposition in the combined Senate and assembly, which could elect a successor if Mr Mugabe were to retire mid-term.
International impatience is rising. Some SADC members have begun to express open criticism. The key, say Western diplomats, is to persuade enough SADC leaders to take the lead in diplomacy away from South Africa's Mr Mbeki. The UN's secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, says there is a humanitarian crisis and has offered his “good offices”. But Zimbabwe is creeping up the agenda at the UN Security Council, and on May 1st Britain took over the council's monthly chair from South Africa.
SADC may still push for a government of national unity. But it is far from getting all parties to agree on who should lead it. ZANU-PF refuses to work with Mr Tsvangirai and says it is poised for a second presidential poll. The MDC stresses that a unity government would not mean power-sharing; as the biggest party in the assembly, it would lead a broad government including some members of ZANU-PF and other capable outsiders. Regional leaders have been keen to promote Simba Makoni, a former ZANU-PF finance minister who ran as an independent, but he appears to have won 8% of the votes. Most who voted for Mr Makoni are likely to vote for Mr Tsvangirai in a second round. If it were fairly conducted and the count independently verified, there is little doubt that Mr Tsvangirai would win.
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