From The Economist

The opposition goes for broke

May 15th 2008 | JOHANNESBURG
From The Economist print edition

Zimbabwe's opposition leader heads home to risk fighting another election

EPA

Morgan ponders his next move

AFTER a month on safari abroad, trying to befriend leaders all over Africa, Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the embattled opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), has decided to go home and risk contesting a presidential election run-off. As The Economist went to press, he was poised to fly back, having already missed at least one deadline to do so.

No one knows whether Mr Tsvangirai will be able, on his return, to move freely around the country. No one knows, more crucially, whether people will be able to vote freely or whether their votes will be honestly counted. Yet, though independent observers assume Zimbabwe's president, Robert Mugabe, and his people will do their worst on all such fronts, giving him a big built-in advantage in the contest, there is still a chance that a groundswell of opposition—and the courage and desperation of MDC voters—may give Mr Tsvangirai the edge, as it did in the first round. But few are confident he will win.

The electoral commission, which took over a month to announce the results of the vote on March 29th, has yet to set a date for the run-off. But it now says it may be held within 90 days after the date of the long-delayed announcement, ie, by the end of July. That, Mr Mugabe's backers presumably hope, should give them time to beat the opposition into submission.

Mr Tsvangirai, who says he won over 50% outright in the first round, accused the ruling ZANU-PF of rigging the official results, which gave him 47.9%, against 43.2% to Mr Mugabe. State-sponsored violence against suspected opposition supporters has been steadily increasing, so it will be harder for the MDC to contest a second round. The authorities have not excluded laying charges against Mr Tsvangirai, who hopes to address a rally in the Zimbabwean capital, Harare, on his return.

Repression is increasing. The editor of a prominent independent newspaper, a well-known human-rights lawyer and several trade-union leaders were arrested last week, as well as MDC officials. Foreign diplomats touring hospitals to investigate the violence were interrogated at a roadblock outside Harare. A few incidents of retaliation by opposition supporters have been reported, but pro-government militias have carried out most of the well-orchestrated violence, dishing out severe beatings and burning down houses.

The MDC says at least 32 of its supporters have been killed since March 29th. A doctors' association has documented over 900 cases of severe beatings-up by pro-government militias or members of the security forces since the election; it says the real number of victims, including women, children and the old, is probably much higher, as only a fraction of them reach hospitals, which are running out of basic supplies. Doctors and nurses in rural hospitals are being intimidated, so many victims cannot get treatment. Thousands of people accused of backing the MDC, including teachers and polling officials, have fled the countryside. They may not be willing or able to return to their original ward to vote in a second round, which would skew the results in favour of Mr Mugabe.

African leaders have called for a free, fair and peaceful run-off. The opposition wants more international observers and peacekeepers to come for the poll. Mr Tsvangirai wants the Southern African Development Community (SADC), an influential club of 14 countries, at least to double its number of monitors from the 120-odd who watched the first round and to send peacekeepers. But the government has said Western or UN monitors would not be let in, unless sanctions (in essence, a travel ban and asset freeze on some 130 leading figures of the regime), which are repeatedly blamed for the economic mess, are lifted. African observers who monitored the first poll are to be let in again—and their numbers may even go up.

Be nice to a sweet old man

However, rather than give Mr Tsvangirai a chance of ousting Mr Mugabe at the polls, most regional leaders sound keener to arrange a negotiated settlement to produce a government of national unity, probably with Mr Mugabe at its head. That would be followed by a two-year transition and a gracious handover, perhaps to a compromise candidate within ZANU-PF.

South Africa's president, Thabo Mbeki, who remains the chief mediator for SADC, was in Harare last week, and sent a team including retired generals to investigate the reports of violence. It is unclear how much clout Mr Mugabe has over the Joint Operations Command (JOC), a secretive and influential clutch of Zimbabwe's security chiefs now chaired by Emmerson Mnangagwa, a ruling ZANU-PF hardliner widely touted as the likeliest successor to Mr Mugabe from within the establishment. The JOC is suspected of planning Mr Mugabe's fightback after the shock of his poor showing a few days after the March election and may be organising the violence.

Much still depends on the performance of SADC's observers and the attitude of its leaders. While Mr Mbeki is still doggedly loth to squeeze Mr Mugabe out, SADC's current chairman, Levy Mwanawasa of Zambia, and the chairman of the African Union (AU), Tanzania's Jakaya Kikwete, have become colder to the Zimbabwean leader, and may heed the suggestion that more monitors from other countries in Africa under the AU's aegis as well as from SADC countries be brought in. The head of South Africa's ruling ANC, Jacob Zuma, probably wants Mr Mugabe out. And Mr Mugabe's Chinese friends, foiled by southern African dockers who recently stopped a shipload of arms from reaching him, may be keeping their distance too. He is by no means certain of victory yet.

Robert Mugabe lost the first round

When will Mugabe get the sack?

From The Economist

NEARLY five weeks after the presidential election, the results have at last come out. According to the electoral commission Morgan Tsvangirai, the challenger, beat Robert Mugabe, the incumbent, but too narrowly to win outright. The official data said that Mr Tsvangirai had won 47.9% of the vote to Mr Mugabe’s 43.2%. This means there must be a run-off. But it is unclear whether Mr Tsvangirai will take part. The Movement for Democratic Change insists that its candidate won outright with 50.3% and that the official results are false.

Mr Tsvangirai faces a dilemma. If he boycotts a second round, he will lose by default. But if he agrees to compete, Mr Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party seem certain to use intimidation, violence and vote-rigging to force people to vote for the incumbent. For now the opposition leader remains abroad, unlikely to return without being offered guarantees of his safety.

It is unclear when the run-off will take place, although it may be within three weeks of the result being officially declared. Mr Tsvangirai and the MDC may eventually agree to take part if there is a much stronger presence of international monitors than before, preferably from the United Nations. So far, the Southern African Development Community, a group of 14 countries in the region, has provided oversight. But the MDC and most independent observers say it is biased in favour of Mr Mugabe. In particular, Thabo Mbeki, the president of South Africa, has been reluctant to oversee Mr Mugabe’s downfall.

Mr Mugabe’s position is not entirely secure. For the first time, Zimbabwe's crisis has been discussed in the UN's Security Council. Southern African leaders are becoming alarmed by multiplying reports of government-sponsored violence. The MDC says that at least 20 of its supporters have been killed in recent weeks, and hundreds beaten up. Some in the ruling circles are muttering that the impasse can be solved only with a government of national unity. Mr Mugabe, however, has given no hint that he will step down.

But his acknowledged loss of Parliament—his ZANU-PF party is without control for the first time since independence in 1980—is a big blow. Despite fears of rigging, a recount of votes in 23 of the 210 constituencies failed to change the overall result. The two factions of the MDC, which together won 109 seats against ZANU-PF's 97, have promised to join forces in Parliament. If Mr Mugabe were to manage to stay on, his government would struggle to pass any law in the legislature. (The MDC would not be able to rule the roost either as it lacks the two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution.) The president's wide powers could enable him to rule by decree. He can appoint a third of the senators, so his party would still outnumber the opposition in the combined Senate and assembly, which could elect a successor if Mr Mugabe were to retire mid-term.

International impatience is rising. Some SADC members have begun to express open criticism. The key, say Western diplomats, is to persuade enough SADC leaders to take the lead in diplomacy away from South Africa's Mr Mbeki. The UN's secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, says there is a humanitarian crisis and has offered his “good offices”. But Zimbabwe is creeping up the agenda at the UN Security Council, and on May 1st Britain took over the council's monthly chair from South Africa.

SADC may still push for a government of national unity. But it is far from getting all parties to agree on who should lead it. ZANU-PF refuses to work with Mr Tsvangirai and says it is poised for a second presidential poll. The MDC stresses that a unity government would not mean power-sharing; as the biggest party in the assembly, it would lead a broad government including some members of ZANU-PF and other capable outsiders. Regional leaders have been keen to promote Simba Makoni, a former ZANU-PF finance minister who ran as an independent, but he appears to have won 8% of the votes. Most who voted for Mr Makoni are likely to vote for Mr Tsvangirai in a second round. If it were fairly conducted and the count independently verified, there is little doubt that Mr Tsvangirai would win.