From The Economist

The opposition goes for broke

May 15th 2008 | JOHANNESBURG
From The Economist print edition

Zimbabwe's opposition leader heads home to risk fighting another election

EPA

Morgan ponders his next move

AFTER a month on safari abroad, trying to befriend leaders all over Africa, Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the embattled opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), has decided to go home and risk contesting a presidential election run-off. As The Economist went to press, he was poised to fly back, having already missed at least one deadline to do so.

No one knows whether Mr Tsvangirai will be able, on his return, to move freely around the country. No one knows, more crucially, whether people will be able to vote freely or whether their votes will be honestly counted. Yet, though independent observers assume Zimbabwe's president, Robert Mugabe, and his people will do their worst on all such fronts, giving him a big built-in advantage in the contest, there is still a chance that a groundswell of opposition—and the courage and desperation of MDC voters—may give Mr Tsvangirai the edge, as it did in the first round. But few are confident he will win.

The electoral commission, which took over a month to announce the results of the vote on March 29th, has yet to set a date for the run-off. But it now says it may be held within 90 days after the date of the long-delayed announcement, ie, by the end of July. That, Mr Mugabe's backers presumably hope, should give them time to beat the opposition into submission.

Mr Tsvangirai, who says he won over 50% outright in the first round, accused the ruling ZANU-PF of rigging the official results, which gave him 47.9%, against 43.2% to Mr Mugabe. State-sponsored violence against suspected opposition supporters has been steadily increasing, so it will be harder for the MDC to contest a second round. The authorities have not excluded laying charges against Mr Tsvangirai, who hopes to address a rally in the Zimbabwean capital, Harare, on his return.

Repression is increasing. The editor of a prominent independent newspaper, a well-known human-rights lawyer and several trade-union leaders were arrested last week, as well as MDC officials. Foreign diplomats touring hospitals to investigate the violence were interrogated at a roadblock outside Harare. A few incidents of retaliation by opposition supporters have been reported, but pro-government militias have carried out most of the well-orchestrated violence, dishing out severe beatings and burning down houses.

The MDC says at least 32 of its supporters have been killed since March 29th. A doctors' association has documented over 900 cases of severe beatings-up by pro-government militias or members of the security forces since the election; it says the real number of victims, including women, children and the old, is probably much higher, as only a fraction of them reach hospitals, which are running out of basic supplies. Doctors and nurses in rural hospitals are being intimidated, so many victims cannot get treatment. Thousands of people accused of backing the MDC, including teachers and polling officials, have fled the countryside. They may not be willing or able to return to their original ward to vote in a second round, which would skew the results in favour of Mr Mugabe.

African leaders have called for a free, fair and peaceful run-off. The opposition wants more international observers and peacekeepers to come for the poll. Mr Tsvangirai wants the Southern African Development Community (SADC), an influential club of 14 countries, at least to double its number of monitors from the 120-odd who watched the first round and to send peacekeepers. But the government has said Western or UN monitors would not be let in, unless sanctions (in essence, a travel ban and asset freeze on some 130 leading figures of the regime), which are repeatedly blamed for the economic mess, are lifted. African observers who monitored the first poll are to be let in again—and their numbers may even go up.

Be nice to a sweet old man

However, rather than give Mr Tsvangirai a chance of ousting Mr Mugabe at the polls, most regional leaders sound keener to arrange a negotiated settlement to produce a government of national unity, probably with Mr Mugabe at its head. That would be followed by a two-year transition and a gracious handover, perhaps to a compromise candidate within ZANU-PF.

South Africa's president, Thabo Mbeki, who remains the chief mediator for SADC, was in Harare last week, and sent a team including retired generals to investigate the reports of violence. It is unclear how much clout Mr Mugabe has over the Joint Operations Command (JOC), a secretive and influential clutch of Zimbabwe's security chiefs now chaired by Emmerson Mnangagwa, a ruling ZANU-PF hardliner widely touted as the likeliest successor to Mr Mugabe from within the establishment. The JOC is suspected of planning Mr Mugabe's fightback after the shock of his poor showing a few days after the March election and may be organising the violence.

Much still depends on the performance of SADC's observers and the attitude of its leaders. While Mr Mbeki is still doggedly loth to squeeze Mr Mugabe out, SADC's current chairman, Levy Mwanawasa of Zambia, and the chairman of the African Union (AU), Tanzania's Jakaya Kikwete, have become colder to the Zimbabwean leader, and may heed the suggestion that more monitors from other countries in Africa under the AU's aegis as well as from SADC countries be brought in. The head of South Africa's ruling ANC, Jacob Zuma, probably wants Mr Mugabe out. And Mr Mugabe's Chinese friends, foiled by southern African dockers who recently stopped a shipload of arms from reaching him, may be keeping their distance too. He is by no means certain of victory yet.

Robert Mugabe lost the first round

When will Mugabe get the sack?

From The Economist

NEARLY five weeks after the presidential election, the results have at last come out. According to the electoral commission Morgan Tsvangirai, the challenger, beat Robert Mugabe, the incumbent, but too narrowly to win outright. The official data said that Mr Tsvangirai had won 47.9% of the vote to Mr Mugabe’s 43.2%. This means there must be a run-off. But it is unclear whether Mr Tsvangirai will take part. The Movement for Democratic Change insists that its candidate won outright with 50.3% and that the official results are false.

Mr Tsvangirai faces a dilemma. If he boycotts a second round, he will lose by default. But if he agrees to compete, Mr Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party seem certain to use intimidation, violence and vote-rigging to force people to vote for the incumbent. For now the opposition leader remains abroad, unlikely to return without being offered guarantees of his safety.

It is unclear when the run-off will take place, although it may be within three weeks of the result being officially declared. Mr Tsvangirai and the MDC may eventually agree to take part if there is a much stronger presence of international monitors than before, preferably from the United Nations. So far, the Southern African Development Community, a group of 14 countries in the region, has provided oversight. But the MDC and most independent observers say it is biased in favour of Mr Mugabe. In particular, Thabo Mbeki, the president of South Africa, has been reluctant to oversee Mr Mugabe’s downfall.

Mr Mugabe’s position is not entirely secure. For the first time, Zimbabwe's crisis has been discussed in the UN's Security Council. Southern African leaders are becoming alarmed by multiplying reports of government-sponsored violence. The MDC says that at least 20 of its supporters have been killed in recent weeks, and hundreds beaten up. Some in the ruling circles are muttering that the impasse can be solved only with a government of national unity. Mr Mugabe, however, has given no hint that he will step down.

But his acknowledged loss of Parliament—his ZANU-PF party is without control for the first time since independence in 1980—is a big blow. Despite fears of rigging, a recount of votes in 23 of the 210 constituencies failed to change the overall result. The two factions of the MDC, which together won 109 seats against ZANU-PF's 97, have promised to join forces in Parliament. If Mr Mugabe were to manage to stay on, his government would struggle to pass any law in the legislature. (The MDC would not be able to rule the roost either as it lacks the two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution.) The president's wide powers could enable him to rule by decree. He can appoint a third of the senators, so his party would still outnumber the opposition in the combined Senate and assembly, which could elect a successor if Mr Mugabe were to retire mid-term.

International impatience is rising. Some SADC members have begun to express open criticism. The key, say Western diplomats, is to persuade enough SADC leaders to take the lead in diplomacy away from South Africa's Mr Mbeki. The UN's secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, says there is a humanitarian crisis and has offered his “good offices”. But Zimbabwe is creeping up the agenda at the UN Security Council, and on May 1st Britain took over the council's monthly chair from South Africa.

SADC may still push for a government of national unity. But it is far from getting all parties to agree on who should lead it. ZANU-PF refuses to work with Mr Tsvangirai and says it is poised for a second presidential poll. The MDC stresses that a unity government would not mean power-sharing; as the biggest party in the assembly, it would lead a broad government including some members of ZANU-PF and other capable outsiders. Regional leaders have been keen to promote Simba Makoni, a former ZANU-PF finance minister who ran as an independent, but he appears to have won 8% of the votes. Most who voted for Mr Makoni are likely to vote for Mr Tsvangirai in a second round. If it were fairly conducted and the count independently verified, there is little doubt that Mr Tsvangirai would win.

Overview of todays News

From SW Radio Africa, 8 April: High Court postpones decision on MDC presidential vote case, again

By Lance Guma

High Court judge Tendai Uchena postponed to Wednesday a ruling on an application by the MDC demanding the release of presidential election results from the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission. Despite an earlier ruling that the matter was urgent, the judge demanded a second round of hearings ‘to deal with matters with full concentration.’ It remained unclear whether the judge was physically tired or just needed more time and arguments from the different legal teams. The case will begin again 10am on Wednseday. Opposition lawyer Alec Muchadehama told the court his clients ‘have a legitimate concern to have the results announced expeditiously.’ ZEC however had sought to block the High Court from intervening, by arguing it had no jurisdiction to order ZEC to announce the results. This argument was thrown out by Uchena and paved the way Tuesday for the actual court case to begin.....

From The Times (UK), 9 April

Zimbabwe faces starvation as mobs rampage through farms

Catherine Philp in Harare South

Just as Tommy Miller was milking his Friesian herd early yesterday morning, the mob stormed into Dunluce Farm. Armed with sticks, stones and a shotgun, they ordered him to stop. He refused. The cows had to be milked or they would become ill. "This is the law," replied their dreadlocked leader, brandishing his baton. "You must throw the milk on the ground." As they rampaged through Zimbabwe’s last productive farms, Robert Mugabe’s feared militiamen threatened to drive the country to starvation with a campaign not just to reclaim white-owned land but to destroy the farming system. Reports flooding into farmers’ unions in Harare yesterday told of the wilful destruction of farm equipment, produce and buildings as part of an alleged "popular uprising" by government-backed mobs in the name of getting the land back for the black population.

Agriculturalists fear that the country could run out of food within weeks as the farm invasions stop the maize harvest in mid-flow and threaten the future of wheat crops with only four weeks left for planting. As of yesterday, 60 commercial farmers – including two black farmers with opposition sympathies – had been evicted from their farms by mobs of so-called war veterans, the shock troops unleashed by Mr Mugabe in a desperate attempt to cling to power. Dozens more have fled their farms, unwilling to resist the increasingly violent mobs, which have set fire to farm labourers’ huts and beaten workers. Up to 300 veterans, in T-shirts of the ruling Zanu (PF) party, turned up at Mr Miller’s sprawling dairy farm south of Harare yesterday, closing down production when he refused to leave, and surrounding his heavily fortified house to try to flush him out.

Milk has become one of the scarcest commodities in Zimbabwe since the first invasions in early 2000, and long queues form from early morning in the rare places it can be found on sale. In a land of such desperate hunger, the wanton waste of milk seems unbelievable. But while millions of Zimbabweans spent their day in the exhausting search for food, Mugabe supporters spent theirs in a frenzied effort to destroy the supply chain. The militias, financed by trillions of Zimbabwean dollars printed since Mr Mugabe’s apparent election defeat 11 days ago – official results have still not been announced – are answering a call to arms to defend the land from a new white invasion and reclaim what is held by the country’s few hundred white farmers. Mr Mugabe has cast the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) as the stooges of former British colonial rulers, claiming that it is seeking to hand back land to ousted whites.

When two white Times journalists drove to Dunluce Farm yesterday on the pretext of buying meat, the car was set upon by the chanting mob occupying the farm. They dragged a cart across the driveway to block an escape and gathered, chanting and mocking, round the car. "The butchery is closed, the farm is closed," their leader said. "This is the law." Similar tales were told by the white farmers fleeing to Harare for safety and congregating at the offices of the Commercial Farmers’ Union (CFU) to report attacks on their farms. "They are saying they have come to reeducate the people and repossess the land," one white farmer from Mashonaland Central said, refusing to give his name for fear of retribution. Too afraid to return to his farm, he was fretting over what would happen to his wheat crops, which must be planted within four weeks. Other farmers were evicted or fled in the middle of the maize harvest, raising fears over how long the country could last on its food stocks.

Zimbabwe needs 23,000 tonnes of maize a week to feed its population, half of which it imports. Its remaining stocks stand at just two thirds of that figure. Trevor Gifford, president of the CFU, calculated that more than 1,000 lorryloads of maize would have to be imported every week just to keep the country at subsistence level. The political limbo, meanwhile, shows no signs of ending. Yesterday a court postponed the opposition’s petition for the release of disputed election results, as news emerged that officials had been arrested for allegedly undercounting Mr Mugabe’s vote. There is no sign of the promised run-off between Mr Mugabe and his challenger, Morgan Tsvangirai, but every sign of a violent campaign unfolding to intimidate opposition supporters. In Harare, the queues for basic food-stuffs stretched along the pavements into the evening. "We are suffering here," said one woman, holding her crying baby. "When will it end?"

From Zim Online (SA), 9 April

Soldiers beat up revellers and shoppers

By Own correspondent

Harare - Soldiers beat up revellers and late evening shoppers in the city of Gweru as punishment for not "voting correctly", a human rights group has reported as Zimbabwe’s election stalemate looks increasingly set to degenerate into violent clashes between rival political groups. The Zimbabwe Peace Project (ZPP) said soldiers, some of them wearing face masks, on Sunday raided bars and a public market in Gweru’s Mkoba 6 surbub, assaulting people they accused of failing to vote correctly. Gweru, which is in Mdilands province, is a stronghold of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party led by Morgan Tsvangirai which trounced President Robert Mugabe’s ruling Zanu PF party in the city in just ended elections. The ZPP said: "Soldiers descended on unsuspecting revellers in bars and late night shoppers beating them up. The soldiers were allegedly saying the people’s crime among other things was that they did not vote correctly." The soldiers, who allegedly used logs and broom sticks to assault their victims, were back on Monday morning but this time at a different shopping centre in Mkoba 14 suburb where they again beat up civilians, according to ZPP......

From The Star (SA), 9 April

Tsvangirai in Harare airport scare

Moshoeshoe Monare and Hans Pienaar

Harare - An SAA flight, whose passengers included MDC leader and potential Zimbabwean president Morgan Tsvangirai, battled to land at Harare airport because runway lights had been switched off. But SAA spokesperson Robyn Chalmers said the company "had no record" of such an event. Tsvangirai was on his way back after his brief visit in South Africa, where he met, among others, ANC president Jacob Zuma. He caught the 7pm flight (SA23) to Harare on Monday, which was supposed to land at around 9pm. According to a passenger, who spoke to The Star on condition of anonymity, the plane had to fly around the airport because the pilot could not see the runway lights. "(The pilot) told us that we have passed the airport and there was still no word from the tower about switching on the lights. He said he was facing a dilemma either to return to Johannesburg or fly around the airport. But he raised the concern that he may run out of fuel if he did not land in the next hour," said the passenger. He confirmed that Tsvangirai was on the same flight and that the lights were finally switched on, to the relief of anxious passengers.

MDC secretary-general Tendai Biti said he knew nothing about the flight problems. Chalmers said the Harare flight left OR Tambo Airport 14 minutes late, but arrived "five or six minutes early" at Harare Airport. Biti confirmed that Tsvangirai had met Zuma and Provincial and Local Government Minister Sydney Mufamadi, but refused to disclose any further details. "Those are the two that I am authorised to disclosed … But everyone is concerned about the situation in the country," was all that Biti was prepared to say. Meanwhile Biti has warned Southern African Development Community and African Union leaders not to wait for dead bodies, but to intervene urgently to broker the tense political impasse triggered by the failure to announce the presidential election result. "We are aware that Zanu-PF wants to … put us in a position where we are frustrated and we say we are demonstrating and protesting … They want to declare a state of emergency … We remain steadfast in our commitment to peaceful ways of resolving this dispute … We are keeping our members restrained … I say to my brothers and sisters across the continent, don't wait for dead bodies in the street of Harare. There is a constitutional and legal crisis in Zimbabwe," Biti said.

From AFP, 8 April

Mozambique ready for Zimbabwe refugees: president

Maputo - Mozambique’s President Armando Guebuza has said his country was willing to house refugees from Zimbabwe, in the event of post-election violence in the country, local media said Tuesday. Speaking at an event to mark Women’s Day celebrations in Maputo, Guebuza said he was willing to accept refugees from Zimbabwe, where tension is rising over the unannounced outcome of a presidential poll ten days ago. "We are thinking of the good of the people of Zimbabwe," he said, in repsonse to questions from journalists on the possibility of an influx of refugees, should the tension spiral into violence. The independent online news service Canal de Mocambique quoted Guebuza as saying the outcome of a court case in which Zimbabwe’s opposition is attempting to force the release of results of the presidential poll should be awaited. "The election process in Zimbabwe is not in an impasse. It appears to me that there are issues before the courts," he said. "Let’s wait for the outcome of the court case. We have to respect the sovereignty of Zimbabwe and for that we have leave it up to them to decide their own fate without us pressurising them."....

Recount?

From The Times (UK), 6 April: Robert Mugabe's Zanu PF demands recount in Zimbabwe election

President Robert Mugabe’s ruling party today demanded a recount of the vote in last weekend's Zimbabwean presidential election, pushing the timetable for the results to be released ever further back. The move, reported in the state Sunday Mail newspaper, prompted outrage from the opposition party which claims its leader Morgan Tsvangirai won the March 29 presidential ballot outright. The Movement for Democratic Change said that it would not accept a recount, and did not want a runoff. Today it was pressing ahead with legal attempts to force the publication of the results. "How do you have a vote recount for a result that has not been announced? That is ridiculous," said Nelson Chamisa, an opposition spokesman. He accused the ruling Zanu PF party of vote fraud, claiming that police have told opposition leaders that the ruling party has been tampering with ballots ever since the election. "These claims are totally unfounded and they are only meant to justify Zanu PF's rigging," he said. The Sunday Mail quoted a letter from a lawyer representing Zanu PF calling for a recount because of "errors and miscalculations in the compilation of the poll result". The party also asked the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission to defer announcement of the presidential election results because of the "anomalies", the paper reported. The report came a day after Mr Tsvangirai called on Mr Mugabe to step down, and accused the country’s longtime ruler of plotting a campaign of violence to bolster his chances of winning an expected runoff. Eight days after the election, the commission has yet to announce the results. Unofficial tallies by independent monitors show that Mr Tsvangirai won more votes than Mr Mugabe, but fewer than the 50 percent plus one vote required to avoid a runoff.

Opposition party lawyer Andrew Makoni said a high court judge was expected to rule at 2pm on an urgent petition demanding publication of the election results, but the time came and went with no news from the court. Mr Makoni said that the judge had only just received a submission from the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission justifying the delay, and needed time to consider it. Armed police prevented opposition lawyers from entering the court yesterday but there was no police presence today. The Movement for Democratic Change maintained its resistance to a runoff. "We are not going to accept the so-called runoff. It is going to be a ’run-over’ of Zimbabwe. People are going to be killed," Mr Chamisa said. "We are not so naive a leadership to lead our people to slaughter." Yesterday Mr Tsvangirai stopped short of saying the party would boycott any runoff. But he voiced concerns that the state would mobilise the armed forces, feared youth brigades and war veterans to terrorise voters into supporting Mr Mugabe. He said Zanu PF was "preparing a war against the people". Mr Mugabe has been accused of winning previous elections through violence and intimidation. Scores of opponents were killed during the 2002 and 2005 campaigns. The law requires a runoff within 21 days of the initial election, but diplomats in Harare and at the United Nations say Mugabe may order a 90-day delay to give security forces time to clamp down. "Mugabe must accept that the country needs to move forward. He cannot hold the country to ransom. He is the problem not the solution," said Mr Tsvangirai, who appealed to African leaders and the UN to intervene to "prevent chaos and dislocation."

Bright Matonga, the Deputy Information Minister, dismissed fears of violence as "a lot of nonsense". Mr Mugabe, 84, has ruled since his guerrilla army helped overthrow white minority rule in 1980. His popularity has been battered by an economic collapse since 2000 following the forcible seizures of white-owned commercial farms. A third of the population has fled the country and 80 per cent are jobless. Inflation is raging at more than 100,000 percent. Official results for parliamentary elections held alongside the presidential race showed Zanu PF losing its majority in the 210-seat parliament for the first time in the country’s history. Final results for the 60 elected seats in the senate gave the ruling party and the opposition 30 seats each.

Zimbabwe: the terror is back as we wait for the return of a deranged, violent power

from the Times (UK)

"A couple of million Zimbabwe dollars, a meal, some beer and they will become a pack of murderous dogs for you"

Comment

Jan Raath in Harare

fIn Mbare township, almost exactly 28 years ago, I stood and trembled as an exultant, raucous mob surged down the road towards me. Minutes before, Robert Mugabe and his Zanu PF had been announced the victors of 1980’s independence election. This week, as final results from parliamentary elections revealed defeat for Mr Mugabe and his party, I was in the same spot. This time there was no revelry. Women hurried past with buckets of water on their heads. A lunatic was declaiming passionately from a rubbish heap on the pavement. I wandered over to a banana-seller. “Are you happy now?” I asked. “Of course,” he replied softly. “Tiripanyanga” - Shona for “We are in control”. A car swept past, its hooter blaring in lone celebration. In the queue at the bakery, a man said: “Change was inevitable.” About six of us, complete strangers, shook hands warmly, but that was all.

The night before, some friends had been drinking in the townships. There was a police roadblock outside the hotel in Highfield. They took no notice of us, a group of whites. The bar was deserted except for two men playing pool and one drunk. “This is a Zanu PF bar,” said the drunk. Then he whispered: “But change is coming. Don’t say it loud.” Another dive in Warren Park was half full with people watching Liverpool play Arsenal on a TV screen so green that it was almost impossible to see anything. As I asked why no one was celebrating, a convoy of vehicles carrying riot police passed at the bottom of the street. “Because of them,” came the reply. “Also, we are waiting for the big one. Then we party big time.” People are still buttoned up. The parliamentary victory is satisfying, but “he” is still there, radiating menace. Only when it has been announced that he has lost the presidential vote will the mask slip, so deep is the mistrust and fear that he will suddenly declare himself the winner and wreak vengeance.

But the fear was evaporating. Every day that passed made the situation harder to reverse. Outside Harvest House, the MDC’s headquarters in the city centre, a crowd of 100 swaggering young men was lounging among cars parked three deep across the road - they have become a permanent feature of Nelson Mandela Avenue over the past three days. A week ago they would have been bludgeoned and scattered by a riot squad. On Wednesday night six uniformed policemen, a couple of them armed, came into the City Bowling Club, a scruffy bar frequented by white, mostly older, boozers. They sat down at the counter, bought beers and, as they warmed to the clientele, were bought more. “They don’t have the stomach to go into the streets and shoot people,” one drinker said. “Rather drink with the people than shoot them.”

Mr Mugabe’s ban on international media is failing: the BBC, supposedly out for the past six years, and Sky are here, and CNN and NBC are following. Bright Matonga, the blustery Deputy Information Minister, is turning into Zimbabwe’s Comical Ali. But by the end of a momentous week, the farce was turning into tragedy. On Thursday night armed riot police barged into a suburban tourist lodge, looking for “illegal journalists”. Two of them are still in custody. Yesterday morning several hundred men, aged between 20 and 40, marched through the centre of town, not demonstrators but men being mobilised. Desperate rural young men like this, you give a couple of million Zimbabwe dollars, a meal, some beer and they will become a pack of murderous dogs for you. Everything was back to where it was. The dread, the not knowing, the helplessness, the imminence of an unpredictable, violently deranged power. The people knew this could happen and they have kept their joy for another time.

Election results?

From Radio New Zealand, 2 April: Final results of Zimbabwe elections expected shortly

The final results of Zimbabwe's parliamentary election are set to be announced in a few hours, according to a source at the Electoral Commission. So far the opposition has a slight lead over President Robert Mugabe's ruling Zanu PF, with 90 seats to the incumbent's 85. The source says the results on the senate election will follow but the commission is refusing to commit to any timeline on the more crucial presidential contest. The hold-up to the presidential result has prompted intense speculation the delay is to either fix the outcome or find a dignified way for Mr Mugabe, who has been power for 28 years, to depart. Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai says he is convinced he has beaten Mr Mugabe but has declined to claim victory formally, saying he will not do so until the Electoral Commission publishes the final count.

Meanwhile, Mr Tsvangirai and the Zimbabwean government both strongly denied on Tuesday they were in talks to arrange Mr Mugabe's resignation. "There is no discussion and this is just a speculative story," Mr Tsvangirai said in response to media reports that Mr Mugabe was about to step down in a deal with his Movement for Democratic Change party. Deputy Information Minister Bright Matonga told the BBC: "There is no deal. There is no need for a deal … there are no negotiations whatsoever." Mr Mugabe, 84, has ruled Zimbabwe with an iron fist since independence from Britain in 1980. He is seeking a sixth term. He faced an unprecedented challenge in the elections because of a two-pronged opposition attack and the economic collapse of his once prosperous country, which has reduced much of the population to misery. Zimbabweans are suffering the world's highest inflation of more than 100,000%, food and fuel shortages, and an HIV/AIDS epidemic that has contributed to a steep decline in life expectancy.

Zimbabwe Elections

http://www.zimelectionresults.com/

Excerpt from "A billion lives"

Mugabe's response to Murambatsvina: Excerpt from "A billion lives"

By Jan Egeland

Tents are for Arabs

Zimbabwe's president Robert Mugabe looks older and frailer than I remembered him from photographs and film footage. He moves slowly and is thinner. He leans on the right arm of his chair for support as he speaks. As someone who campaigned against apartheid during my student years, I am slightly in awe of the hero of the liberation struggle against Ian Smith's white minority regime as he peers at me through thick glasses. I feel like a student undergoing an examination by an eminent professor. The president is notorious for keeping people waiting and I think we have done quite well to see him by 9:15 a.m. this rainy Tuesday, December 6, 2005, after only fifteen minutes in an anteroom of the presidential palace in Harare. I know this will be one of my most difficult missions and meetings ever.

Nearly three years earlier, my predecessor as UN relief coordinator, Kenzo Oshima, a more polite and diplomatic envoy than me, had been kept waiting for hours in the presidential antechambers before being lectured for an hour about UN shortcomings. This time, probably because of the international publicity surrounding my mission, we do not have to wait and it seems I will be allowed to speak uninterrupted. It is a unique opportunity to speak truth to power. Zimbabwe was called "the jewel" and "the bread basket" of Africa after its liberation from white minority rule in 1980. The economy, the infrastructure, and the educational system were among the best on the continent. Twenty-five years later it is synonymous with economic collapse and political repression. It started at the end of the 1990s. Large and productive farms were nationalized and white farmers were forced to hand over their estates to ill-prepared veterans from the liberation struggle and political activists from Mugabe's party, the Zanu PF.

The need for land reform in a country where a few white colonizers had claimed the best farming land is indisputable. But reform was brutally enforced in the worst possible manner for the farmers, the agricultural sector, and the population at large. Production plummeted, the black farm laborers lost their jobs, and little food made it to the markets or to foreign exports. A country that had had a large food surplus could not feed itself, and had to rely on foreign emergency aid and remittances from the growing number of Zimbabweans who have to leave the country to make a living. As both domestic and foreign investors fled the country, a general breakdown in the rule of law fueled the economic crisis. Mugabe's government was however undeterred and continued to fund ambitious public programs that principally benefited the political and tribal groups that supported the government. To cover the enormous state budget deficits the National Bank was instructed to print additional money that created inflation, and later hyperinflation. Today the Zimbabwean economy is arguably more mismanaged than any other in peacetime.

I am primarily going to discuss the massive homeless problem Mugabe has created almost overnight through his "Operation Restore Order," a brutal eviction campaign that began seven months ago. I spent hours yesterday walking among some of the seven hundred thousand destitute and homeless people who are living under makeshift plastic sheeting or in the open after being evicted from shantytowns across Zimbabwe. The evictions were not only particularly brutal and chaotic in the way they spread throughout the country, but profoundly political, turning out many who did not support the government party and leaving urban areas to regime supporters who would like cleaner and leaner cities and less competition for jobs. Those evicted were not only among the poorest and most vulnerable in the country, many were sick with AIDS or tuberculosis. I saw and spoke to dozens of families who had lost everything when their tiny "illegal" brick houses were bulldozed, or their small vending shacks burned and torn apart by security forces in an operation that began in May.

The presidential office is smaller and nicer than the grotesquely oversized staterooms that so many African presidents preside in. As planned, I start our discussion by describing the shocking scenes I saw in the slums of Hopely Farm, and the Whitecliff and Hatcliff suburbs on the outskirts of Harare. I explain that we need to discover how we can most rapidly and effectively help with food and shelter for the homeless. President Mugabe carefully enunciates each syllable in his academic English as though addressing someone who does not speak his language. He is immediately on the defensive. While acknowledging his awareness of "a problem," he seems intent on downplaying a situation that has scandalized the world with its callous indifference to human suffering. His most outrageous comment comes as I try to impress upon him the urgent need for emergency shelter for the thousands of families with children who are at great risk with no shelter, no food, and no income. The UN is willing to supply tents immediately as a short-term answer to the problem.

As I press, the tenor of Mugabe's calm, lecturing tone rises. There is a hint of barely repressed anger as he says, "We do not feel comfortable with the term 'shelter.' Shelter has connotations of impermanency and we build for permanency." As I seek to return to the need for immediate action he is clearly angered. "Keep your tents, we do not need them. Tents are for Arabs!" Stunned, I ask him to repeat what he said. "We want to give real houses to our people. Tents are for Arabs," he says again. It is a phrase that in its absurdity will reverberate through my office. "We may have an accommodation problem," Mugabe continues, "but the 700,000 figure is exaggerated. People can be sheltered by their families." He embarks on a semantics lecture, suggesting the term "shelter" sends the wrong meaning: "The word connotes impermanency. We want permanent housing here. In terms of humanitarian needs it is not even as bad here as in South Africa. The South Africans have sent delegations here to learn from our housing programs.

"When I was a boy herding my godfather's cattle and it rained I looked for 'shelter' where I could find it - under a tree or in a nearby hut. That is shelter. You can provide food if you want to and build permanent houses with us, but not provide 'shelter' in the form of tents." It is one of those situations when you do not know whether to cry, laugh, or shout. With the UN resident coordinator Agostinho Zacarias and my OCHA colleagues Agnes Asekenye-Oonyu and Hansjoerg Strohmeyer, I am failing to get the head of state to admit the gravity of the situation in his country - that his people are in desperate need of precisely the things we offer. Through the UN agencies, the International Organization for Migration, and excellent local and international NGOs, we can help meet acute emergency needs. But instead of saying "How can we help you help our people," the man wants to lecture me about the shortcomings of official UN terms and concepts!

I try to explain that there is no money for any form of more permanent housing since the donors are reluctant to help even with temporary shelter. They regard Zimbabwe's problems as the direct result of Mugabe's evictions, and his agricultural and economic policies. "Donors will only pay for temporary shelters. They think it's indefensible that there are no tents allowed. Disaster victims accept tents in Louisiana, Florida, and in Europe. Why not here?" I ask. "The UN is politicized," Mugabe says. "You want to provide an image of refugee camps here. Our attitude to tents is negative." Nodding from the nearby black leather sofa in Mugabe's small, white-walled office are the permanent secretary of the President's Office and the ministers of foreign affairs and defense. It is difficult to know whether he believes what he is saying because the nodding ministers never seem to tell him what he does not want to hear.

The UN is politicized, Mugabe says, because it is dominated by Britain and its stooges - among whom I, a Norwegian, am soon lumped. Mugabe is particularly angry with the UN because a field visit several months earlier by Anna Tibaijuka, the African head of UN Habitat, our organization for urban issues and housing, had first alerted the world to the full extent of Zimbabwe's housing disaster. He suggests that Tibaijuka would be better advised to visit Nigeria, which has a far greater "cleanup" program under way than Zimbabwe. "It is clear to us that the UN is being used by Britain for political purposes," he repeats. "That is why we are sensitive to your own presence." Mugabe's body language and that of his ministers express their profound skepticism about the motives behind the UN's work in Zimbabwe. Mugabe speaks slowly. "We are beginning to lose confidence in the United Nations and even the secretary-general."

Urban renewal campaigns and removal of unauthorized buildings and squatters take place all the time all over the world. I had, however, called Zimbabwe's eviction program "the worst possible thing at the worst possible time" when it was at its brutal height in May, June, and July. I had no interest in castigating the government of Zimbabwe. Apart from protesting against apartheid, I supported our Scandinavian assistance to the liberation struggles against the white minority regimes of both Rhodesia and South Africa. But we have to tell the truth about what is taking place in the country that President Mugabe rules. I lean forward, seeking eye contact, and try again: "The purpose of my mission on behalf of your fellow African, Secretary-General Kofi Annan, is to discuss how we can more effectively contribute to meet humanitarian needs in Zimbabwe. The challenges here are, as we all know, daunting: There are more than three million who need food assistance. There are one million orphans caused by AIDS."

"We are willing and able to assist the people if we know whom you will cover and if you will do more to enable the work of the humanitarian organizations. We are less effective here than in most other places due to all the restrictions on our work. We use tents in the emergency phase for the homeless in Europe, America, and Asia. Tents will only be one of the ways we would like to provide shelter to the most needy of the hundreds of thousands who are homeless. I saw thousands yesterday who have nothing. Your government housing programs are small and still not completed. Those who live under plastic sheeting or out in the open want the tents that we can provide."

20 Dollar limit

From VOA News, 4 March: Amid roaring hyperinflation, Zimbabwe sets new cash holding limits

By Jonga Kandemiiri

Washington - The Zimbabwean government has made it illegal for citizens to hold more than Z$500 million in cash, currently equivalent to just over 20 U.S. dollars. A recently introduced statutory instrument says anyone found in possession of more than this sum can be charged with unlawful hoarding. Companies are barred from settling bills over $250 million, about US$10, with cash. In recent days the exchange rate against the U.S. dollar has soared to Z$24 million. The decree was issued in an effort to regain control over the money supply and to put what Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono calls "cash barons" out of business. He coined the phrase to describe large operators on the country's bustling parallel markets in foreign exchange and most essential commodities. A loaf of bread costs about Z$5 million; a single egg fetches some Z$1.7 million. Economist Luxon Zembe, a former president of the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce, told VOA that the law will merely make life harder for ordinary people who need to carry large amounts of cash to buy scarce goods that can only be found on parallel or black markets.

Universities stay closed

From SW Radio Africa, 30 January: Government orders universities to remain closed till after elections

By Tererai Karimakwenda

In a move described by students as a sign of increased paranoia, the government has ordered all state run universities and colleges to stay closed until after elections on March 29th. ....

New measures to slow down Inflation

From The Mail & Guardian (SA), 1 February: Zimbabwe inflation hits record high

Johannesburg - Zimbabwe's inflation hit a record 26 470,8% in November 2007, Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono said in a monetary policy statement on Thursday. The figure rose from 7 982,1% in September. Zimbabwe's Central Bank produced no inflation data for October. " ... Inflation continues to be arguably the most devastating macroeconomic imbalance in the country, as its adverse effects are cutting across all sectors," Gono said. "As monetary authorities, our philosophy on how to successfully destroy the inflation dragon remains that of deploying a combination of demand management policies, supported by structural reforms, as well as deliberate strategies to invigorate the supply side of the economy," he said. The country needed to produce more food to fight inflation and more houses needed to be built for the people to reduce "the penal rentals that are fuelling overall inflation", Gono said. Zimbabwe needed to produce more foreign exchange through higher exports and foreign investment inflows. "With more foreign exchange, we will better preserve the external value of our local currency, which in turn minimises imported inflation," he said.

... yeah sure

From the news: Water outages hit fire tenders, woes mount in Zimbabwe

From Associated Press, 27 January: Water outages hit fire tenders, woes mount in Zimbabwe

Harare - Fires caused by candles during Zimbabwe's frequent power outages have destroyed homes because firefighters have also been unable to find water, the state Sunday Mail reported. In one incident, in suburban northern Harare, a candle set curtains alight and an occupant tore down them down and threw them outside, onto drums being used to store gasoline. The house was gutted, with only a bed recovered from the ruins, the paper said. In the second, gasoline was being sold from a house occupied by four families in a western township and caught light when a candle was lit during an electricity cut, it said. All the occupants escaped without injury. House owner Sothini Chiravasa told the newspaper by the time fire tenders began drawing water from a neighbor's swimming pool the blaze was out of control. «How could they come to put out a fire without water?» she was quoted as saying. Zimbabwe is suffering daily power and water outages along with chronic shortages of gasoline that have forced many householders to store supplies in containers despite constant warnings by the fire department of the dangers. Amid the shortages, gas prices have soared, crippling public transport services and putting regular fares out of the reach of many workers, many of whom have resorted to walking to their jobs. ....

Ask a Zimbabwean for tips on power cuts

Comment from The Sunday Independent (SA), 20 January: Ask a Zimbabwean for tips on power cuts

What an incredible fuss you South Africans make about a few power cuts. I happened to lie down next to my battery-operated satellite radio for a nap this week after the season's only two hours of summer whacked me out. I heard the likeable David O'Sullivan sounding unlikeable. Okay. He was in a rage, so angry he sounded as though he might burst an artery, or the membrane holding his brain in place. About Eskom. I couldn't believe my ears. As far as I can remember, in this past week there were only about six cuts, and none longer than five hours. Same thing at the pharmacy: moan, moan, moan. Then it struck me - for the first time in my life I had really useful knowledge. I do know about electricity cuts and what to do about them. I know about boilers, paraffin fridges, wicks and lighting the lamps by pumping them hard at 5.30pm.

Please, South African householders, unless you live on more than an acre, don't get a generator. There will be murder in the streets of Parkhurst, the Berea in Durban and Obs in Cape Town if home owners on tiny bits of land all have generators farting rhythmically through long days and dark nights. Even small generators use 1 litre of diesel per hour. And they get stolen easily unless cemented in and you need monster ones to do fridges and stoves. Leave generators to Raymond Ackerman and his ilk. First rule for survival: get a solar panel on the roof, which is connected to an especially large car battery in your house, which is then attached to an inverter, which in turn has a switch that lights up the world. This system keeps a TV, DSTV encoder, DVD player, mobile and laptop chargers going. And it costs nothing to run. The bigger the battery, the more lights. (Ditch desktop computers today.) It doesn't do fridges (more about fridges later) and it doesn't do electric stoves.

Go for gas. Mozambique has 300 years of gas, and the ANC government - even though it chose to do the arms deal instead of electricity - did put in a pipeline for gas from Mozambique. If you live in the older suburbs of Johannesburg phone up the angels (seriously) at eGoli Gas and they will look on the map to see if you have a gas pipe in your street. If you have, then get connected. Gas geysers also work at a fraction of the cost of electricity if you don't go for solar-heated water. Refrigerators are another thing altogether. If you keep the doors shut, a tall one will keep food from going off during a power cut of about 30 hours. A deep freeze lasts about 2,5 days if you don't open it. Longer than that and the food goes off. After all, you can shop daily in South Africa. Raymond Ackerman is going to keep the generators running.

Most Zimbabwe-owned supermarkets shut down during power cuts. Only foreign-connected ones such as Spar have generators, or those owned by Zanu PF chefs (political elite), as they get cheap fuel. You must conserve power. You have a chance to do this because you still do have commerce and industry. We lost our industry over the past few years, so that sector can't really help much. We have more or less given up mining. Except, except, and think about this: your mining houses can buy power with foreign currency directly from Cahora Bassa and pay in US dollars, as they are doing in Zimbabwe now. It is a bit more expensive than Eskom, but it keeps the platinum pouring out. We also don't have any robots left in our streets, and little traffic, so we don't have the kind of traffic jams I saw along Jan Smuts Avenue in Jo'burg on Thursday during a power cut.

We don't kill each other in fuel queues, and we don't have road rage as our roads are mostly gone. Nor do we kill each other in banks, even when there is no money there, or in supermarkets. Well, only very, very occasionally, and only once, over sugar and that was in Bulawayo, which is very far from town. So bear up, improvise and go get the solar, inverter, battery alternatives, and gas. And you will all survive until you have enough new power sources within eight years, so I hear, and you are not going to be nearly as short of foreign currency as Zim, so can import some power. But Zimbabwe will recover sooner than South Africa, because our population is in Hillbrow.

new notes

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,529587,00.html

they even take notice of this in Germany!